What Is The Spread In Sports Betting – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few know what it really means. Even few people use the concept to place their bets.
Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s arguably the most important factor for sports betting ROI.
What Is The Spread In Sports Betting
At its simplest, the expected value in sports betting is a way of measuring the probability gap between the bettor’s expectation – and that of the sportsbook.
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Winners set the odds by betting, which bettors set for all money lines, point spreads, sums and all types of bets. Almost all U.S. law Sportsbooks usually use the so-called American odds, in which positive numbers (such as +100, +222, etc.) are assigned to the underdogs and negative numbers (-120) are assigned. for favorites., -155, etc.) .
In this system, the row number increases as the probability of winning decreases, and the row number decreases as the probability of winning increases.
This means that a +100 underdog is more likely to win than a +240 (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.
For example, if a book gives a team—let’s say the Seahawks against the Patriots—a +100 line, that translates to a 50% chance of winning, or a coin flip.
What Is An Alternate Line?
If the bettor believes that the Seahawks have more than a 50% chance of winning this game, they will give a positive expected value (+EV). If the bettor believes the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they will place a negative expected value (-EV).
Weighing bets by expected value gives professional bettors a huge advantage over most other bettors and one of the few edges they can have on a sportsbook.
The number one mistake of regular sports is flipping through the board at the last minute, or checking the NFL odds on Sunday morning, hoping to pick the winners for the day. Those looking for the expected value, or +EV, of the line (and, by extension, the probability) the oddsmakers place on each game, often try to find out early whether the bet is too high.
The NFL’s best bettors make a habit of looking for value early in the week. As of Thursday, oddsmakers have adjusted their lines, and in a stable market like the NFL, value bets are available for a little while before the market takes off.
What Does Ats Mean In Sports Betting?
Positive value betting is a basic way to bet on sports, which the big bettor, often called “the public”, does not use enough.
The typical trader is like a roulette player hoping their suit is called. A + EV speculator is a stock trader who tries to sell high and buy low.
As most sports bettors value the quality of their bets, it is impossible to win in the long run just by hoping to win. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now more than a dozen other states) have spent years evaluating hundreds of thousands of sports events. They use the best raters, programs and algorithms to find the best lines. Even the most bettors “only” win 55%-56% of their bets.
There is a reason why most sports books, whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, or Pennsylvania, offer betting prizes, free drinks and other benefits to their customers; They will return their money.
How To Make A Point Spread Bet
Almost every dealer and online sportsbook charges at least a 5% fee (4.54% exactly) on the bet line, also known as interest or “wig”. For example, if the sportsbook gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the line on both teams is -110 (52.38% expected probability) instead of +100. This means that bettors pay what is essentially an additional 5% tax on every bet, win or lose. A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bet to just break even.
That all being said, sports books have historically made a profit of between 5% and 8% on the total amount, meaning sports betting offers players the best chance of winning of any legal gambling. Few sports bettors make money in the long run, but smart bets can, at least, keep the bettors entertained.
To do this, the betrayer must think seriously. Betting on value does not guarantee long-term success, but betting without considering EV guarantees long-term failure.
To use another analogy, the +EV bettor is like a supermarket specialist. A wise shopper notices when the price of an item is higher than the previous visit and asks for a suitable replacement. In fact, that same shopper is buying something at a discount that they might not otherwise have purchased.
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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that has the potential to win but requires a large price to bet, +EV bettors shop the online betting industry to predict what they think will happen with the book, What will happen down the line his bet. , meaning it will happen.
Taking a sports betting example, let’s say the sports book lists the Detroit Lions as -150 favorites on the money line against the Chicago Bears. The average trader thought the Lions would win, so they bet on Detroit. A sharp bettor realizes the sportsbook line is that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. Although they believe that the lions will win, they think it is less likely than the book suggests. In this case, they are looking at the bears, who are +130 moneyline underdogs, which translates to a 43.48% chance of winning.
Although the +EV bettor thinks that the Lions are the better team – and although they appear to have a higher chance of winning – they believe the Bears have a higher chance of winning at 43.58%.
The value is with the rats, so + EV bettors bet on Chicago. Sometimes +EV can be found during play, as bettors look for edges at sportsbooks that offer in-play bets. In short, expected value bettors are not betting on who will win, but on what conditions.
What Is A Point Spread? 💰
; A +EV bettor sometimes bets on a team he expects to lose, if that’s where the value is.
It may seem like a complicated process to pick the odds from the betting line, but it is actually the easiest part of EV betting.
For American odds, if the book row has a positive value, the formula calls for dividing 100 by the row number by 100. It looks like this:
So if the book game line is +110, divide 110 by 110 and 100. Batters must remember to add the line by 100 first. It will look like this:
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Changing bad odds is easy. This time, it is the line with 100 divided by the line. It looks like this:
Using -190, for example, would look like the following. Again, the formula calls for adding the two halves of the numerator (or the other half of the denominator) before dividing the numerator:
Then the bettor can predict not only whether the team will win, lose or close, but by measuring the probability of such an event and the probability of the book.
Bettors can see the odds in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example on the page, Chicago (+130/43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150/60% chance to win) have a percentage of 103.48%.
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Or if you noticed from the “V” bet example earlier, both teams have -110 per line placed, or a 52.38% chance. This is because of the wig, which is used almost every day.
These small fees add up over a long period of time, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even, with low profits. A real bet, like a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coins at -110 for heads and tails.
Because the Super Bowl coin toss is split roughly between heads and tails, the sports book is guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. Specifically, since the probability of heads or tails is 50%, and sportsbooks “charge” 52.38% for a bet, this is a good example of an -EV bet.
Other traditional sports bets work the same way. If, for example, a book gets an equal number of bookies who will cover the favorites and who won’t cover the favorites, it is guaranteed to make money.
What Is A Point Spread?
Of course, not all sports bets are cash. These are what +EV bettors are looking for, keeping calm and patiently waiting for a betting line that seems to be closed.
Unfortunately, bettors have no sure way of knowing which bets have the expected value. Some traders rely on their own algorithms, others monitor breaking news, and others have at least some confidence in the market and often don’t know when it’s time to “buy low.” If there is time, they are allowed to defeat them. The finish line.
As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on years of experience and significant financial and human resources. The sportsbook operator uses this vast wealth of knowledge and money to create lines that the average bettor cannot duplicate with near-perfect accuracy. For most sports bettors, that’s it
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