Uganda Forex Bureau Rates Today – Kampala. If the shilling continues to depreciate, employers may be forced to cut jobs or increase prices of goods and services to stay afloat, NGO leaders have warned.
In an interview given to the Daily newspaper yesterday, the leadership of the private sector said that if the free fall of the shilling is not stopped immediately, the businessmen will take strict measures to prevent it.
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On Tuesday, the Ugandan shilling reached 3,000 dollars compared to 2,970 and 2,980 dollars the previous day, according to the Bank of Uganda. At the end of yesterday’s business, according to the Central Bank, it was traded at 3, 031 (buying) and 3, 041 Sh.
Pdf) Modelling Monthly Ugandan Shilling/us Dollar Exchange Rates By Seasonal Box Jenkins Techniques
“In this situation, it is difficult to do business. There are signs that this could get worse,” said the Executive Director of the Private Sector Uganda (PSFU), Mr. Gideon Badagawa, in an interview.
Mr Badagawa warned that if this does not end soon, “The cost of doing business will rise more than we expect and we will be forced to cut costs which may include laying off some staff and making adjustments. labor costs in the near future.” .
The President of the Uganda Manufacturing Association (UMA), Mr. Ssebagala Kigozi, said that many industries pay for raw materials in dollars, saying that this development (weakening of the shilling) makes it less money. . , making business difficult.
He said: “This will increase the cost of production, and that will have a negative effect. We will be forced to increase the price of the products, while the purchasing power (purchasing power) of the consumers will be damaged” He continued. : “They won Before the price of fuel and electricity went up. In general, there is no winner here;
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Mr. Ssebagala responding to allegations that the shilling has fallen to this level because the manufacturing companies do not export enough, Mr. Ssebagala said that if the cost of trade is not reduced, the industry has no incentive to sell abroad.
The head of the Uganda Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UNNCI), Ms Olive Kigongo, said that landlords are already killing, presumably to charge rent in dollars. This means that employers will have to part ways even more than before.
However, Uganda National Bureau of Standards, director of communications and public relations, Mr. Godfrey Nabongo, said their research shows that commodity prices will not rise immediately until they are filled.
South Sudan is the largest foreign country in the country. Uganda’s exports to South Sudan have dropped by nearly 60 percent as South Sudan has been engulfed in civil war. South Sudan is Uganda’s largest trading partner with annual exports exceeding Shs890 million (about $358 million) according to 2013 data from the Ministry of Commerce. “Foreign income may drop to Shs380 by the end of the year if conditions remain the same,” according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Pdf) Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Uganda’s Trade Balance
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Received: 24 September 2018 / Revised: 31 October 2018 / Accepted: 5 December 2018 / Published: 23 December 2018
This research examines the impact of stock price volatility on financial sector volatility. In particular, the study examines the impact of the breakdown between oil and food prices and changes in the exchange rate of an important economic indicator of currency exchange rate: the Uganda Shela against the US dollar (UGX/USD). Variables were analyzed using Generalized Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methods, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), constant correlation (CCC), and variable correlation (VCC). In general, the results of GVAR and MGARCH methods show low levels of market volatility and correlation except during crisis periods, where market volatility and market correlation increase significantly. In particular, the results of the MGARCH analysis show that the DCC model produces the best results. The results obtained show the strengthening of dynamic linkages during and after the global financial crisis (GFC), which suggests an increase in volatility and interdependence between these markets after the global financial crisis. This is also confirmed by the general results of the flow index based on the GVAR analysis, which shows a low level but changes over time which are intensified in periods of high uncertainty and market problems, especially during the global financial crisis and times of major debt crises. .
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In recent years, the growth of integration and globalization has made the world economy more interdependent. This dependence partly reflects the success of decades of liberalization efforts, and is largely a result of the expansion, diversification, and deepening of trade and financial ties between countries. In the 1980s, many African governments began liberalization efforts as part of reform programs aimed at economic development. The resulting integration of the global economy has not only raised the standard of living in many African countries, but has also seen the rapid expansion of communication technology, the globalization of business activities, and the rise of policies and administrative coordination.
Although economic integration has brought many benefits, the interdependence of markets and the world economy has made countries vulnerable to changes in world market prices and the general instability of the world economy. There is growing evidence that there are markets and changes in commodity markets; that is, events in one market can be transmitted to others, and that many such relationships can be strengthened in times of crisis. African economies are vulnerable to this exposure and vulnerability, due to economic dependence on foreign markets and subsidies from the export of several basic commodities, structural problems, and weak institutions and political rules (IMF 2003; Varangis et al. 2004). Since commodity prices are unstable and subject to frequent shocks, commodity-dependent countries often experience large fiscal deficits, which can lead to serious economic problems. reached.
Indeed, external shocks such as changes in commodity prices are often cited as one of the main causes of economic instability and financial crisis in African countries (IMF 2003; Raddatz 2007; Varangis et al. 2004). However, Raddatz (2007) found that external shocks, including changes in commodity prices, explain only a small part of the change in productivity in low-income countries, including many countries. internal reasons. a great source of change. However, the impact of changes in commodity prices on production and overall economic stability may vary across regions and countries, depending on the timing of the shock, the economic importance of the country in question, and whether is foreigner or foreigner. these assets (IMF 2003; UNCTAD 2012; Varangis et al. 2004).
As a result, it is important to understand the specific national meaning of international commodity price changes in terms of financial stability is important from a policy perspective, especially if appropriate policies can enhance the potential benefits of from globalization and reduce potential threats to stability. . For example, understanding the dynamics of flows can inform efforts to coordinate international policy, as well as inform efforts by central banks to intervene in the foreign exchange market aimed at maintaining stability in the financial sector, especially in times of crisis. However, the existing literature provides little empirical evidence on the impact of commodity price volatility on financial stability in developing countries. This paper promises to fill the gap in the existing literature by examining the dynamics between asset prices and macroeconomic indicators.
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