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Pakistani Rupee Nosedives To All Time Low Of 212 Against Us Dollar
KARACH, Pakistan, Jan 26 ( ) – The Pakistani rupee fell 9.6% against the dollar on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop in more than two decades, and could prompt the International Monetary Fund to resume lending for the motherland, central bank data showed.
The drop in the exchange rate came a day after foreign exchange firms removed the exchange rate cap as part of an economic reform plan agreed with cash-strapped South Asian countries, a key IMF demand.
The official value of the rupee against the dollar was at 255.4 rupees on Wednesday, compared with 230.9 rupees on Wednesday, the central bank said.
Faced with a severe balance-of-payments crisis, Pakistan is in desperate need of external financing, and its foreign exchange reserves are barely enough to import for less than three weeks, with the latest figures showing a drop of US$923 million to US$3.68 billion.
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Pakistan received a $6 billion IMF bailout in 2019. An additional $1 billion was added last year to help the country weather devastating floods, but the IMF halted the disbursement in November after Pakistan failed to managed to make further progress in fiscal consolidation.
The bank announced Thursday that it would send a delegation to the country at the end of January to discuss resuming the scheme.
As well as wanting the government to take fiscal action, the IMF is also pushing for a shift to a market-determined exchange rate regime, a point the IMF highlighted in its statement on Thursday.
Exchange companies said on Wednesday they were removing the national interest cap because it created an “artificial” distortion in the economy.
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Wednesday’s movement by foreign exchange dealers, whose open market rates differ from those notified by the central bank, had knock-on effects on Thursday’s official rate.
The drop in official rates was the biggest since 1999, both in absolute and percentage terms, according to Pakistani brokerage JS Global.
On the open market, the rupee fell to 262 to the dollar from 243 rupees, about 7% lower, after falling 1.2% a day earlier, according to trade data from the Association of Exchange Companies of Pakistan (ECAP).
“We are asking the central bank to raise interbank rates to help fight the black market,” ECAP President Malik Bostein told Reuters.
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The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and the Ministry of Finance did not respond to requests for comment.
Since his appointment in September, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has tried to defend the rupee, including from reported currency market interventions that go against IMF advice.
However, the Pakistan Stock Exchange reacted positively to the rupee’s decline, with the KSE 100 rising by more than 1,000 points, or 2.5%.
“Markets reacted positively to the rupee’s depreciation, which removed some uncertainty about the future economic roadmap and the resumption of the IMF program,” said Tahir Abbass, head of research at Arif Habib Limited.
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Karachi-based brokerage Topline Securities said foreign exchange reserves fell sharply to US$4.6 billion on Jan. 13 from US$8 billion in September, leading to a widening of the spread between official and market rates. open and causing blackouts due to insufficient supply of the dollar market.
The sudden drop in interest rates has hit banks hard. Banks that previously borrowed at 230 rupees to the dollar to pay opening positions will now have to settle payments at 250 rupees, according to two officials at commercial banks operating in Pakistan.
The hardest-hit banks are those that don’t have enough money flowing in, officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
While the move raises the prospect of restarting IMF funding, Pakistan is also grappling with decades of high inflation, which economists fear will now worsen. Most of Pakistan’s vital imports, including fuel, are paid for in dollars.
Pakistani Rupee Plummets As Markets Adjust To Removal Of Unofficial Controls
“This will give a big boost to the already high price pressures in the economy,” said Sakib Sherani, a Pakistani macroeconomist, adding that consumer price index (CPI) data is heading towards unprecedented levels in the country.
In the first half of the year through June, average inflation was 25%. Central banks are also tightening monetary policy sharply, key interest rates are also at multi-decade highs and economic growth has stalled.
The ensuing economic crisis will also put political pressure on the government, with former prime minister Imran Khan calling for early elections.
Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Karachi and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Writing by Gibran Peshimam; Edited by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Shri Navaratnam and Simon Cameron-Moore
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Ariba Shahid is a journalist in Karachi, Pakistan. She mainly covers economic and financial news from Pakistan, as well as Karachi-centric stories. Ariba previously worked for DealStreetAsia and Profit Magazine.
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